The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) typically lasts from June to September and is a key ingredient to agricultural planning and food production on the rim of the Indian Ocean ( Wang et al., 2009 Goswami et al., 2010). Therefore, a better simulation of tropical subseasonal zonal winds is required to improve the CIO mode prediction in models, and the improvement will benefit a better MISO simulation and a higher prediction skill during the ISM. The decline of the CIO mode prediction skill is due to the reduced signal of subseasonal zonal winds at 850 hPa over the tropical central Indian Ocean (especially along the equator 5°S–5°N, 70☎–85☎). The ECMWF and UKMO models display significantly higher skills for up to about 2 and 3 weeks, respectively, which are longer than other S2S models.
In this study, the prediction skill of the CIO mode in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) air–sea coupled models is examined. The central Indian Ocean (CIO) mode was proposed as a subseasonal climate mode over the tropical Indian Ocean, and it has a close relation with monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) during the ISM both in observations and simulations. Prediction of precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is a persistent scientific challenge. 4State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China.3Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, China.2School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.1College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.Jianhuang Qin 1* Lei Zhou 2,3 Baosheng Li 4 Ze Meng 2
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